Polymarket · weekly receipts

Week of Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2026

Updated Oct 27, 2026, from run 1793084411

In the week of Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2026, whales have finished betting on 143 Polymarket markets ($46.3M of whale money); 71 have settled. The 1,925 whale positions we can score on them made +$1.30M between them: 1,069 came out ahead, 855 behind.

Biggest win: Substantial-Service, +$413K on Golden State Valkyries (“Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries”). Biggest loss: Fortunate-Century, −$140K on Yes (“Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?”).

One good week is one result, not a skill: check each wallet's settled record and luck-vs-skill verdict before reading anything into it. What happened when we copied the best whales.

Polymarket Limitless

Biggest wins

one whale on one market

Whale · verdict	Market	Backed	Made on it
Substantial-Service Beat the odds*	Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries	Golden State Valkyries	+$413K
Serene-Decision Can't tell from luck	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	+$297K
Vivid-Ski Can't tell from luck	Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)	Warriors	+$233K
Yellow-Dress-Ballet Can't tell from luck	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	+$136K
Vivid-Ski Can't tell from luck	Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)	Warriors	+$111K
Gracious-Management-Circle Can't tell from luck	LoL: Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner	Team Liquid	+$95K
Sweltering-Junior-Storm Too few bets	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	+$93K
Moist-Dame Can't tell from luck	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	+$92K
Homely-Gosling Beat the odds*	Grizzlies vs. Jazz	Grizzlies	+$85K
Yellow-Dress-Ballet Can't tell from luck	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	+$80K

Biggest losses

one whale on one market

Whale · verdict	Market	Backed	Made on it
Fortunate-Century Too few bets	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	−$140K
Wide-Honoree-Nutmeg Too few bets	Raptors vs. Timberwolves	Raptors	−$127K
Fatherly-Stamen Too few bets	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	−$124K
Substantial-Service Beat the odds*	Grizzlies vs. Jazz	Jazz	−$114K
Boring-Musician Can't tell from luck	Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)	Eagles	−$110K
Mountainous-Heat-Reservoir Can't tell from luck	Warriors vs. Nuggets	Nuggets	−$105K
Wide-Honoree-Nutmeg Too few bets	Spread: Celtics (-14.5)	Bulls	−$102K
Mountainous-Heat-Reservoir Can't tell from luck	Grizzlies vs. Jazz	Jazz	−$101K
Gracious-Management-Circle Can't tell from luck	LoL: LOS vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner	Team Secret Whales	−$99K
Determined-Tomato Can't tell from luck	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	−$74K

The week's whale markets

143 · 72 still open

Market	Whale money	Whales	Result	Last whale bet
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs DENDELE CS (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	$121K	5	Open	Oct 27
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	$2.77M	193	Open	Oct 27
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	$744K	88	Open	Oct 27
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	$1.26M	140	Open	Oct 27
Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova	$63K	11	Open	Oct 27
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	$77K	22	Open	Oct 27
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	$235K	48	Open	Oct 27
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	$58K	22	Open	Oct 27
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	$307K	64	Open	Oct 27
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	$70K	12	Open	Oct 27
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	$83K	19	Open	Oct 27
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	$287K	49	Open	Oct 27
Pan Pacific Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Maria Sakkari	$187K	23	Won: Yulia Putintseva	Oct 27
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	$270K	33	Open	Oct 27
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	$195K	12	Open	Oct 27
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	$101K	28	Open	Oct 27
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	$61K	10	Open	Oct 27
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	$157K	37	Open	Oct 27
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	$220K	49	Open	Oct 27
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	$1.30M	105	Open	Oct 27
Guangzhou Open: Simona Waltert vs Jil Teichmann	$91K	5	Won: Jil Teichmann	Oct 27
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	$58K	20	Open	Oct 27
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	$163K	47	Open	Oct 27
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	$141K	18	Open	Oct 27
Warriors vs. Nuggets	$546K	53	Won: Warriors	Oct 27
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	$332K	53	Open	Oct 27
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	$72K	14	Open	Oct 27
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	$584K	102	Open	Oct 27
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	$149K	27	Open	Oct 27
Grizzlies vs. Jazz	$875K	48	Won: Grizzlies	Oct 27
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	$80K	17	Open	Oct 27
Pan Pacific Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova	$133K	7	Won: Ekaterina Alexandrova	Oct 27
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)	$120K	4	Won: Warriors	Oct 27
Cowboys vs. Eagles	$703K	31	Won: Cowboys	Oct 27
Pan Pacific Open: Maya Joint vs Sorana Cirstea	$74K	6	Won: Maya Joint	Oct 27
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	$506K	61	Open	Oct 27
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	$109K	11	Won: Milwaukee Brewers	Oct 27
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	$429K	65	Open	Oct 27
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	$63K	14	Open	Oct 27
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	$2.65M	136	Open	Oct 27
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	$614K	53	Open	Oct 27
Spread: Rockets (-4.5)	$52K	8	Won: Rockets	Oct 27
Hawks vs. Rockets	$156K	22	Won: Rockets	Oct 27
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	$117K	26	Open	Oct 27
Suns vs. Thunder	$140K	18	Won: Thunder	Oct 27
Pacers vs. Bucks	$169K	29	Won: Bucks	Oct 27
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	$125K	12	Open	Oct 27
Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)	$223K	14	Won: Cowboys	Oct 27
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	$1.18M	122	Open	Oct 27
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries	$589K	13	Won: Golden State Valkyries	Oct 27
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)	$280K	5	Won: Warriors	Oct 27
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers	$354K	55	Won: Cavaliers	Oct 27
Mavericks vs. Heat	$206K	19	Won: Mavericks	Oct 27
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	$205K	10	Open	Oct 27
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	$78K	16	Won: Yes	Oct 27
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	$197K	22	Open	Oct 27
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	$74K	10	Open	Oct 27
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	$113K	29	Open	Oct 27
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	$59K	17	Open	Oct 27
Bulls vs. Celtics	$100K	10	Won: Celtics	Oct 27
Wizards vs. Hornets	$379K	29	Won: Hornets	Oct 27
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	$412K	64	Won: No	Oct 27
Spread: Heat (-7.5)	$68K	5	Won: Mavericks	Oct 27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	$132K	23	Open	Oct 27
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-26?	$77K	5	Won: Yes	Oct 27
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	$1.40M	160	Won: Yes	Oct 27
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	$910K	98	Open	Oct 27
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	$543K	23	Open	Oct 27
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	$80K	12	Open	Oct 27
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	$52K	13	Open	Oct 27
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	$136K	29	Open	Oct 27
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	$114K	23	Won: Mbappé	Oct 27
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	$234K	40	Open	Oct 27
Cowboys vs. Eagles: O/U 44.5	$58K	5	Won: Over	Oct 27
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	$495K	73	Won: No	Oct 26
Spread: Hornets (-2.5)	$61K	4	Won: Hornets	Oct 26
Spread: Celtics (-14.5)	$116K	4	Won: Celtics	Oct 26
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	$681K	69	Open	Oct 26
LoL: Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner	$316K	61	Won: Team Liquid	Oct 26
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	$52K	13	Open	Oct 26
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	$200K	28	Won: No	Oct 26
LoL: Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	$129K	24	Won: Team Liquid	Oct 26
LoL: Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner	$302K	51	Won: Team Liquid	Oct 26
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	$130K	18	Won: No	Oct 26
Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5	$61K	7	Won: Over	Oct 26
Sevilla FC vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5	$70K	7	Won: Under	Oct 26
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-25?	$86K	16	Won: Yes	Oct 26
LoL: LOS vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 Winner	$418K	55	Won: LOS	Oct 26
LoL: LOS vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 Winner	$189K	41	Won: LOS	Oct 26
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	$162K	40	Open	Oct 26
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-26?	$55K	12	Won: Yes	Oct 26
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner	$63K	28	Won: BetBoom Team	Oct 26
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PARI Universe Group B	$72K	22	Won: Team Spirit	Oct 26
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	$175K	5	Open	Oct 26
Counter-Strike: G2 vs DENDELE CS (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	$88K	15	Won: DENDELE CS	Oct 26
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	$52K	10	Open	Oct 26
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	$530K	59	Open	Oct 26
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner	$110K	25	Won: PARIVISION	Oct 26
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	$142K	30	Won: Bilibili Gaming	Oct 26
LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage	$135K	34	Won: T1	Oct 26
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	$67K	7	Won: No	Oct 26
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	$110K	21	Won: Spirit	Oct 26
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	$212K	39	Open	Oct 26
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	$87K	24	Open	Oct 26
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	$283K	61	Open	Oct 26
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	$62K	17	Won: Team Liquid	Oct 26
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	$86K	17	Open	Oct 26
No one announced as next James Bond?	$97K	15	Open	Oct 26
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	$79K	23	Won: FUT Esports	Oct 26
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TYLOO (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	$65K	13	Won: TYLOO	Oct 26
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	$54K	17	Open	Oct 26
Dota 2: OG vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A	$68K	20	Won: GamerLegion	Oct 26
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?	$53K	7	Open	Oct 26
Dota 2: OG vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner	$55K	20	Won: GamerLegion	Oct 26
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	$338K	40	Open	Oct 26
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	$108K	21	Open	Oct 26
Dota 2: OG vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner	$91K	20	Won: OG	Oct 26
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	$122K	22	Open	Oct 26
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	$419K	57	Open	Oct 26
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	$175K	45	Open	Oct 26
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	$103K	21	Won: Yes	Oct 26
Pan Pacific Open: Moyuka Uchijima vs Elise Mertens	$99K	8	Won: Elise Mertens	Oct 26
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	$77K	11	Open	Oct 26
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	$129K	27	Open	Oct 26
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	$172K	31	Open	Oct 26
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	$507K	102	Won: Yes	Oct 26
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	$597K	69	Open	Oct 26
Grizzlies vs. Kings	$498K	50	Won: Grizzlies	Oct 26
Chiefs vs. Seahawks	$423K	34	Won: Seahawks	Oct 26
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	$3.24M	326	Won: Yes	Oct 26
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	$4.23M	419	Won: No	Oct 26
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	$405K	50	Won: Yes	Oct 26
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	$103K	14	Open	Oct 26
Pistons vs. 76ers	$280K	37	Won: Pistons	Oct 26
Magic vs. Knicks	$160K	20	Won: Magic	Oct 26
Raptors vs. Timberwolves	$309K	31	Won: Timberwolves	Oct 26
Clippers vs. Thunder	$57K	11	Won: Thunder	Oct 26
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	$180K	36	Open	Oct 26
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	$280K	54	Won: No	Oct 26
Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)	$126K	10	Won: Grizzlies	Oct 26
Pacers vs. Nets	$173K	26	Won: Pacers	Oct 26
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	$211K	20	Open	Oct 26
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	$309K	24	Won: Yes	Oct 26

A market belongs to the week of its last whale bet. "Made on it" counts only the whale trades we captured, marked at the result; whales whose position we only saw part of are left out. It updates daily until the week's markets have all settled. How profit is counted.