Polymarket market · Other
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
Open as of the last daily run · See it on Polymarket ↗
26 whales put $125K into this market since Aug 22, 65% of their buying on No. It hadn't resolved as of the last daily run.
The whales on this market
biggest 25 of 26| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangular-Cartridge
7 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 85¢ | $35K | — |
| 0xfffadf38a520cd5a0035ff52d7fceb436a08864b
3 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 86¢ | $10K | — |
| Livid-Copyright
5 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 22¢ | $8.0K | — |
| Blaring-Surge
19 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $6.4K |
| Attached-Example-Anesthesiologist
64 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 88¢ | $6.2K | — |
| 0xc8b9…b836
9 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 16¢ | $2.0K | $3.4K |
| Powerful-Election
19 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 26¢ | $2.8K | $2.1K |
| 0x76f9…9d10
no settled record |
No @ 87¢ | $4.4K | — |
| 0x8347…fee2
no settled record |
Yes @ 24¢ | $4.1K | — |
| Popular-Breath
5 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 24¢ | $3.0K | $1.1K |
| Stable-Fog
5 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 94¢ | $3.9K | — |
| Trained-Sniffle
6 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 23¢ | $2.3K | $1.4K |
| 0x1b60…a55b
no settled record |
No @ 80¢ | $3.4K | — |
| Sparse-Outset
327 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 15¢ | $2.7K | — |
| Wobbly-Pants
26 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 14¢ | $2.6K | — |
| 0xe8ff…c93b
no settled record |
No @ 83¢ | $2.6K | — |
| 0xf226…1f7f
no settled record |
Yes @ 17¢ | $2.5K | — |
| Rubbery-Harvester
1 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $2.5K |
| 0x6c1f…87fc
no settled record |
Yes @ 29¢ | $2.4K | — |
| 0x0e4e…5bf4
no settled record |
sold only | $0 | $2.1K |
| Dead-Lava
8 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 15¢ | $1.6K | — |
| Expert-Misplacement
5 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $1.5K |
| 0xc940…4d39
no settled record |
Yes @ 29¢ | $1.5K | — |
| Gifted-Ellipse
12 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 85¢ | $1.4K | — |
| Advanced-Mailer
16 settled bets Worse than the odds |
No @ 84¢ | $1.2K | — |
Where the whale money went
-
No$68K65% of whale buying · 10 buyers · $11K sold
-
Yes$36K34% of whale buying · 12 buyers · $9.4K sold
-
No$1.0K1% of whale buying · 1 buyer
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Aug 22 to Oct 7, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1791710133).
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Will Argentina win on 2026-10-06? | $112K | 13 | Won: Yes | |
| Southern Miss vs. Troy: O/U 51.5 | $94K | 5 | Won: Over | |
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner | $115K | 21 | Won: PARIVISION | |
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| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $281K | 50 | Won: PARIVISION |