Polymarket market · Politics & macro
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Resolved: Yes won · See it on Polymarket ↗
21 whales traded $103K on this market since Oct 22, 90% of their buying on Yes. Copying their buys off the order book we recorded about 3 minutes later would have cost 1.3¢ more per share, with 99% of the size there to buy. Yes won, with 90% of the whale buying on it. Of the 16 whales whose whole position we captured, 13 made +$18K and 3 lost −$3.6K: +$15K between them. Biggest win: Determined-Tomato, +$12K on Yes. Biggest loss: Outrageous-Greens, −$1.3K on No.
The whales on this market
21 whales| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valid-Textual-Winery
2 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 20¢ | $2.1K | $21K | — |
| Usable-Flu
29 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 99.87¢ | $14K | — | +$18 |
| Red-Mug-Neuropsychiatry
1 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $7.6K | — |
| Simple-Tradition
50 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 99.8¢ | $7.0K | — | +$14 |
| Cavernous-Beach-Squash
3 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 97¢ | $3.3K | $3.4K | +$63 |
| Careful-Bunch
116 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 85¢ | $3.3K | $2.1K | −$1.2K |
| Each-Jeans
11 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $5.3K | — |
| Self-Reliant-Prayer-Typewriter
24 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 99.8¢ | $5.0K | — | +$10 |
| Unlined-Understanding-Politician
21 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 99.8¢ | $5.0K | — | +$10 |
| Fortunate-Caterpillar
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 41¢ | $1.0K | $2.4K | — |
| Determined-Tomato
17 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 20¢ | $3.0K | — | +$12K |
| Previous-Proof-Landscape
11 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 99.8¢ | $3.0K | — | +$6 |
| Light-Front
6 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 98¢ | $2.5K | — | +$51 |
| Dull-Universe
8 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 87¢ | $2.4K | — | +$357 |
| Delicious-Patrimony
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 94¢ | $2.1K | — | +$136 |
| Outrageous-Greens
3 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 49¢ | $1.3K | — | −$1.3K |
| Admirable-Samurai
8 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $1.3K | — |
| Fearless-Misnomer
57 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 89¢ | $1.2K | — | +$142 |
| Deserted-Bitter
7 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 85¢ | $1.2K | — | −$1.2K |
| 0x4488…e319
95 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 21¢ | $1.1K | — | +$4.3K |
| Clean-Pants
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 44¢ | $1.0K | — | +$1.3K |
Where the whale money went
-
Yes won$54K90% of whale buying · 15 buyers · $41K sold
-
No lost$5.7K10% of whale buying · 3 buyers · $2.1K sold
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 22 to Oct 26, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1793084411).
More politics & macro markets the whales bet on
All Politics & macro →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | $77K | 11 | Open | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | $419K | 57 | Open | |
| Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | $507K | 102 | Won: Yes | |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | $122K | 22 | Open | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $3.24M | 326 | Won: Yes | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $4.23M | 419 | Won: No | |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | $338K | 40 | Open | |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | $180K | 36 | Open |
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?