Polymarket market · Politics & macro
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Resolved: Yes won · See it on Polymarket ↗
16 whales traded $78K on this market since Sep 23, 98% of their buying on Yes. Copying their buys off the order book we recorded about 2 minutes later would have cost 3.1¢ more per share, with 100% of the size there to buy. Yes won, with 98% of the whale buying on it. Of the 12 whales whose whole position we captured, 11 made +$16K and 1 lost −$1.0K: +$15K between them. Biggest win: Happy-Command, +$7.1K on Yes. Biggest loss: Indelible-Try, −$1.0K on Yes.
The whales on this market
16 whales| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowing-Kit
18 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 99.48¢ | $12K | — | +$63 |
| Present-Mascara
3 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 83¢ | $10K | — | +$2.1K |
| Sociable-Rooster
30 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 96¢ | $8.8K | — | +$365 |
| Happy-Command
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 53¢ | $8.1K | — | +$7.1K |
| Inferior-Plough-Acrylic
9 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 87¢ | $7.6K | — | +$1.1K |
| Playful-Circulation
8 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $7.1K | — |
| Determined-Valuable
26 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 73¢ | $5.1K | — | +$1.9K |
| Athletic-Curiosity
24 settled bets Worse than the odds |
Yes @ 80¢ | $3.4K | — | +$841 |
| Flippant-Speech
7 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $3.3K | — |
| Simple-Tradition
50 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 97¢ | $1.2K | $1.8K | — |
| 0x98d0…f14a
32 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 93¢ | $2.2K | — | +$173 |
| Stark-Secretion
1 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $2.0K | — |
| Able-Kielbasa
5 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 63¢ | $1.9K | — | +$1.1K |
| Deafening-Zoologist-Batting
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 71¢ | $1.1K | — | +$439 |
| Lasting-Algebra
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 75¢ | $1.1K | — | +$361 |
| Indelible-Try
75 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 84¢ | $1.0K | — | −$1.0K |
Where the whale money went
-
Yes won$62K98% of whale buying · 12 buyers · $14K sold
-
Yes lost$1.0K2% of whale buying · 1 buyer
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Sep 23 to Oct 27, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1793084411).
More politics & macro markets the whales bet on
All Politics & macro →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | $205K | 10 | Open | |
| Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | $74K | 10 | Open | |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | $113K | 29 | Open | |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | $59K | 17 | Open | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | $910K | 98 | Open | |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | $117K | 26 | Open | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | $543K | 23 | Open | |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | $52K | 13 | Open |
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?