Sweltering-Junior-Storm
Skill vs luck
Sweltering-Junior-Storm on Polymarket: 6 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 19%–81%) · profit −$62K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Sweltering-Junior-Storm: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x2e7bf3e7b8ba0351b737897197fd5cc34fbfbd8c. Data CC BY 4.0.
Sweltering-Junior-Storm: −$62K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 19%–81%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$3.1K
- Sep 23 – Oct 10
- −$141K
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- +$76K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | BUY No @ 18¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $3.7K |
| Oct 24 | SELL Yes @ 16¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $3.4K |
| Oct 24 | SELL No @ 21¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $29K |
| Oct 22 | BUY No @ 22¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $27K |
| Oct 21 | BUY No @ 22¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $2.3K |
| Oct 19 | BUY No @ 23¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $7.9K |
| Oct 18 | SELL Yes @ 20¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $2.8K |
| Oct 18 | SELL Yes @ 21¢ | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $26K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?