Mountainous-Heat-Reservoir
0xb4f978be63cdf75554b0b46a4262a6db597cc9a7
Mountainous-Heat-Reservoir: −$87K on 104 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 47% (95% range 38%–57%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$87K
return −9.6%
Settled bets
104
$907K staked
Won
47.1%
95% range 38%–57%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 103 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$17K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$137K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$33K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | BUY San Diego Padres
@ 56¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres |
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres | $3.9K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Southern Miss
@ 54¢
Spread: Troy (-10.5) |
Spread: Troy (-10.5) | $2.6K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Under
@ 49¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 |
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 | $29K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Buccaneers
@ 53¢
Spread: Cowboys (-9.5) |
Spread: Cowboys (-9.5) | $6.0K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Under
@ 51¢
Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 58.5 |
Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 58.5 | $3.6K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Broncos
@ 51¢
Spread: 49ers (-6.5) |
Spread: 49ers (-6.5) | $5.0K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Chiefs
@ 50¢
Chiefs vs. Raiders |
Chiefs vs. Raiders | $5.0K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Commanders
@ 14¢
Colts vs. Commanders |
Colts vs. Commanders | $2.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.