Polymarket market · Other
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
Open as of the last daily run · See it on Polymarket ↗
10 whales traded $52K on this market since Oct 15, 78% of their buying on Yes. Copying their buys off the order book we recorded about 3 minutes later would have cost 0.8¢ more per share, with 20% of the size there to buy. It hadn't resolved as of the last daily run.
The whales on this market
10 whales| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meaty-Place
2 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 94¢ | $16K | — |
| Moist-Dame
18 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 87¢ | $9.7K | — |
| Vibrant-Vintner
11 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 6¢ | $7.6K | — |
| Melodic-Alfalfa
1 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $6.3K |
| Peppery-Capital
31 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 92¢ | $3.8K | — |
| Tan-Wharf
5 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $2.5K |
| Excellent-Mythology
2 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $2.5K |
| Serene-Sculpting
103 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 90¢ | $1.6K | — |
| Quizzical-Hire
27 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $1.4K |
| 0x55b4…80ea
no settled record |
No @ 6¢ | $1.3K | — |
Where the whale money went
-
Yes$31K78% of whale buying · 4 buyers · $11K sold
-
No$8.9K22% of whale buying · 2 buyers · $1.4K sold
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 15 to Oct 17, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1792306820).
More other markets the whales bet on
All Other →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? | $102K | 9 | Open | |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | $75K | 8 | Open | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | $74K | 19 | Open | |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | $117K | 10 | Open | |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | $234K | 47 | Open | |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | $167K | 30 | Open | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | $707K | 76 | Open | |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-17? | $161K | 26 | Won: Yes |
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?