Polymarket market · Politics & macro

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Open as of the last weekly run · See it on Polymarket ↗

17 whales put $74K into this market since Aug 20, 85% of their buying on Yes. It hadn't resolved as of the last weekly run.

The whales on this market

17 whales
Whale · recordBackedBoughtSold
0xe899…0899
no settled record
Yes @ 75¢ $13K —
Submissive-Clan
8 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 72¢ $13K —
Rectangular-Cartridge
7 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 65¢ $11K —
Wobbly-Pants
25 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 40¢ $7.0K —
Flippant-Speech
3 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 65¢ $6.5K —
0x2a48…72ac
no settled record
Yes @ 65¢ $4.0K —
Each-Jeans
5 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 36¢ $3.7K —
Silver-Angora
1 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 73¢ $2.5K —
0xa577…91e3
no settled record
sold only $0 $2.1K
Robust-Ambiguity
1 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $1.9K
Wooden-Prescription
5 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 66¢ $1.6K —
0xb5d1…6e35
no settled record
Yes @ 61¢ $1.6K —
Attentive-Crewman
5 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 68¢ $1.4K —
0x76f9…f701
no settled record
Yes @ 73¢ $1.4K —
Flaky-War
1 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 62¢ $1.2K —
0xc624…ee24
no settled record
sold only $0 $1.0K
Advanced-Mailer
13 settled bets Can't tell from luck
Yes @ 74¢ $1.0K —

Where the whale money went

  1. Yes
    $58K
    85% of whale buying · 12 buyers · $2.9K sold
  2. No
    $11K
    16% of whale buying · 2 buyers · $2.1K sold

From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Aug 20 to Oct 9, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the weekly run. How profit is counted.

Results and records from the weekly run (1791223421).

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed