Substantial-Service

0x2c335066fe58fe9237c3d3dc7b275c2a034a0563

Polymarket

Beat the odds* Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$662K
return −4.4%
Settled bets
670
$15.0M staked
Won
53.0%
95% range 49%–57%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Beat the odds (1 in 40 wallets do this by luck alone). We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 670 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: −$815K Sep 4 – Sep 20: +$414K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$261K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

In the live feed

$18K bought Buccaneers at 32¢

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 Bought Qinwen Zheng at 66¢
China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Qinwen Zheng
China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Qinwen Zheng $8.8K
Oct 7 Bought Marin Cilic at 39¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic $20K
Oct 7 Bought Marin Cilic at 39¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic $20K
Oct 7 Bought Olle Wallin at 32¢
Braga: Marco Cecchinato vs Olle Wallin
Braga: Marco Cecchinato vs Olle Wallin $4.1K
Oct 7 Bought Olle Wallin at 32¢
Braga: Marco Cecchinato vs Olle Wallin
Braga: Marco Cecchinato vs Olle Wallin $48K
Oct 7 Bought Qinwen Zheng at 73¢
China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Qinwen Zheng
China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Qinwen Zheng $2.3K
Oct 7 Bought Zhizhen Zhang at 13¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Machac
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zhizhen Zhang vs Tomas Machac $20K
Oct 7 Bought Coco Gauff at 22¢
China Open: Coco Gauff vs Elise Mertens
China Open: Coco Gauff vs Elise Mertens $14K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed