The Hopium Index
Every bet a whale bought and held to the end, grouped by the price they paid. If whales priced bets fairly, the dots would sit on the break-even line. Below the line, they paid more than the bet turned out to be worth.
Polymarket whales, per $1 share, across 82,695 held positions
+3.4¢
paid above what their bets were worth
Swipe the chart sideways to see all prices →
Each dot is a 5¢ price bucket: across = average price paid, up = share that won. The vertical tick is the gap to break-even. Hollow dots rest on fewer than 50 positions, so read them loosely. Hover or tab to a dot for its numbers.
Show the numbers
| Avg price paid | Won | Gap | Positions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.8¢ | 5.4% | −2.6% | 37 |
| 7.8¢ | 3.1% | +4.7% | 160 |
| 12.5¢ | 6.1% | +6.4% | 427 |
| 17.5¢ | 13.1% | +4.4% | 619 |
| 22.3¢ | 17.4% | +4.9% | 985 |
| 27.4¢ | 21.5% | +5.9% | 1,451 |
| 32.5¢ | 28.3% | +4.2% | 2,049 |
| 37.4¢ | 31.6% | +5.8% | 2,996 |
| 42.4¢ | 37.8% | +4.6% | 4,653 |
| 47.4¢ | 44.8% | +2.6% | 6,434 |
| 52.1¢ | 48.7% | +3.4% | 8,325 |
| 57.2¢ | 53.2% | +4.0% | 6,693 |
| 62.3¢ | 59.7% | +2.6% | 5,658 |
| 67.2¢ | 63.1% | +4.1% | 4,747 |
| 72.3¢ | 69.4% | +2.9% | 4,170 |
| 77.2¢ | 74.6% | +2.6% | 3,861 |
| 82.2¢ | 79.7% | +2.5% | 3,994 |
| 87.4¢ | 85.5% | +1.9% | 3,731 |
| 92.4¢ | 89.6% | +2.8% | 4,581 |
| 98.6¢ | 95.3% | +3.3% | 17,124 |
Gap = price paid minus how often it won, in cents per $1 share (positive = overpaid). The headline is the gap averaged over all positions.