Polymarket market · Other
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?
Resolved: Mbappé won · See it on Polymarket ↗
23 whales traded $114K on this market since Oct 9, 67% of their buying on Mbappé. Copying their buys off the order book we recorded about 3 minutes later would have cost 5.3¢ more per share, with 77% of the size there to buy. Mbappé won, with 67% of the whale buying on it. Of the 16 whales whose whole position we captured, 6 made +$21K and 10 lost −$18K: +$3.2K between them. Biggest win: Frozen-Antler, +$6.9K on Mbappé. Biggest loss: Jagged-Spread-Minibus, −$5.8K on Yamal.
The whales on this market
23 whales| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reflecting-Personal-Pattypan
3 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $30K | — |
| Frozen-Antler
48 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Mbappé @ 78¢ | $24K | — | +$6.9K |
| Aggravating-Lettuce-Local
7 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $9.3K | — |
| Gargantuan-Government-Survivor
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Mbappé @ 50¢ | $6.8K | — | +$6.7K |
| Jagged-Spread-Minibus
10 settled bets Too few bets |
Yamal @ 33¢ | $5.8K | — | −$5.8K |
| Real-Teaching
3 settled bets Too few bets |
Yamal @ 50¢ | $2.7K | $2.3K | — |
| Thin-Disclaimer-Life
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Mbappé @ 53¢ | $4.1K | — | +$3.6K |
| Rundown-Regard
12 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $4.1K | — |
| Unfolded-Nanoparticle-Leopard
2 settled bets Too few bets |
Mbappé @ 46¢ | $2.8K | — | +$3.3K |
| Fake-Guard
38 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Mbappé @ 99.83¢ | $2.5K | — | +$4 |
| Conventional-Engineer-Method
2 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $2.4K | — |
| Hasty-Dog-Climate
5 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $2.3K | — |
| Sad-Mention
3 settled bets Too few bets |
Yamal @ 49¢ | $2.0K | — | −$2.0K |
| Distant-Inhibitor
25 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yamal @ 53¢ | $1.6K | — | −$1.6K |
| Square-Wholesale
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Mbappé @ 74¢ | $1.5K | — | +$534 |
| Hollow-Filing
79 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yamal @ 29¢ | $1.4K | — | −$1.4K |
| Nice-Headlight-Anniversary
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yamal @ 24¢ | $1.3K | — | −$1.3K |
| Vengeful-Netsuke
16 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yamal @ 50¢ | $1.3K | — | −$1.3K |
| Foolish-Complexity-Columnist
49 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yamal @ 29¢ | $1.2K | — | −$1.2K |
| Frightening-Trailpatrol
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yamal @ 45¢ | $1.2K | — | −$1.2K |
| Favorable-Pepper-Brushing
1,257 settled bets Worse than the odds |
Yamal @ 45¢ | $1.1K | — | −$1.1K |
| 0x6a67…df6f
2 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $1.1K | — |
| General-Variant
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yamal @ 47¢ | $1.0K | — | −$1.0K |
Where the whale money went
-
Mbappé won$42K67% of whale buying · 6 buyers · $48K sold
-
Yamal lost$21K33% of whale buying · 11 buyers · $3.4K sold
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 9 to Oct 27, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1793084411).
More other markets the whales bet on
All Other →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | $80K | 12 | Open | |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | $1.40M | 160 | Won: Yes | |
| Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-26? | $77K | 5 | Won: Yes | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | $132K | 23 | Open | |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | $412K | 64 | Won: No | |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | $495K | 73 | Won: No | |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? | $52K | 13 | Open | |
| Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries | $589K | 13 | Won: Golden State Valkyries |
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?