Homely-Gosling
0xf0318c32136c2db7fec88b84869aee6a1106c80c
Homely-Gosling: −$20K on 11 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 55% (95% range 28%–79%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$20K
return −25.1%
Settled bets
11
$80K staked
Won
54.5%
95% range 28%–79%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 24
- +$9.4K
- Sep 24 – Oct 12
- −$29K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9%
(2,374 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | BUY 49ers
@ 34¢
49ers vs. Seahawks |
49ers vs. Seahawks | $1.1K |
| Oct 11 | BUY 49ers
@ 47¢
49ers vs. Seahawks |
49ers vs. Seahawks | $4.2K |
| Oct 11 | BUY 49ers
@ 58¢
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) |
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | $2.2K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Raiders
@ 9¢
Raiders vs. Patriots |
Raiders vs. Patriots | $1.7K |
| Oct 11 | BUY 49ers
@ 39¢
49ers vs. Seahawks |
49ers vs. Seahawks | $7.7K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Lions
@ 51¢
Spread: Lions (-3.5) |
Spread: Lions (-3.5) | $1.1K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Commanders
@ 14¢
Colts vs. Commanders |
Colts vs. Commanders | $23K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Commanders
@ 17¢
Colts vs. Commanders |
Colts vs. Commanders | $25K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.