Polymarket market · Other

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

Open as of the last weekly run · See it on Polymarket ↗

27 whales put $148K into this market since Sep 2, 93% of their buying on No. It hadn't resolved as of the last weekly run.

The whales on this market

biggest 25 of 27
Whale · recordBackedBoughtSold
Dental-Liquid
24 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 93¢ $14K $14K
Poised-Entertainment
5 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 90¢ $17K —
0x479d…d469
no settled record
No @ 83¢ $12K —
Zesty-Disappointment
17 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $10K
Antique-Frame
7 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 85¢ $9.3K —
Narrow-Rhythm
1 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 91¢ $8.0K —
0x1a24…c5dc
no settled record
No @ 87¢ $7.9K —
Crowded-Distance
18 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 84¢ $2.5K $4.7K
Stark-Therapy
1 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 94¢ $6.1K —
Unwritten-Quiet
1 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 92¢ $5.3K —
Mushy-Asymmetry
21 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 81¢ $4.7K —
Scented-Eyelids
14 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 95¢ $4.4K —
Noted-Shop
4 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 93¢ $4.0K —
Sophisticated-Posterior
1 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 12¢ $3.8K —
Steep-Visa
5 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 88¢ $2.9K —
Bare-Mambo
2 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 94¢ $2.8K —
Imaginary-Siding
1 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 91¢ $2.0K —
Quick-Cardboard
14 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 94¢ $1.9K —
Vengeful-Netsuke
12 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 95¢ $1.8K —
Near-Familiar
5 settled bets Too few bets
Yes @ 7¢ $1.5K —
Determined-Tomato
10 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 93¢ $1.4K —
Fearless-Misnomer
34 settled bets Worse than the odds
Yes @ 21¢ $1.2K —
Whirlwind-Maggot
13 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 89¢ $1.2K —
0x2106…4dea
no settled record
Yes @ 9¢ $1.1K —
Thick-Language
10 settled bets Too few bets
sold only $0 $1.0K

Where the whale money went

  1. No
    $109K
    93% of whale buying · 19 buyers · $29K sold
  2. Yes
    $8.7K
    7% of whale buying · 5 buyers · $1.0K sold

From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Sep 2 to Oct 9, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the weekly run. How profit is counted.

Results and records from the weekly run (1791223421).

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed