Fortunate-Century
Skill vs luck
Fortunate-Century on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 0% (95% range 0%–79%) · profit −$140K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −10.4% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 27, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Fortunate-Century: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0xe37e7a658daba84b2e7961f79b2569dea896fa30. Data CC BY 4.0.
Fortunate-Century: −$140K on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 0% (95% range 0%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 27
- −$140K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23 | BUY Yes @ 77¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $14K |
| Oct 18 | BUY Yes @ 80¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $89K |
| Oct 17 | BUY Yes @ 78¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $37K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?