Polymarket markets

Politics & macro markets

70 Polymarket politics & macro markets drew at least $50K from 3 or more whales since Aug 20; 36 have settled. Newest whale activity first; open one to see who bet what and, once it settles, who was right.

Updated , from run 1791710133

Polymarket Limitless

Politics & macro, newest first

1–70 of 70
MarketWhale moneyWhales ResultLast whale bet
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? $1.47M 178 Open
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? $64K 18 Open
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? $365K 52 Open
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? $149K 27 Open
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? $76K 17 Open
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? $53K 11 Open
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House $320K 35 Open
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? $1.22M 100 Open
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House $331K 35 Open
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? $188K 20 Open
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? $146K 22 Open
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? $75K 23 Open
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? $138K 29 Open
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? $167K 19 Open
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? $1.28M 157 Open
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? $140K 22 Open
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? $176K 33 Open
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? $59K 13 Open
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? $377K 32 Won: No
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? $61K 11 Open
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? $79K 4 Open
Trump out as President before 2027? $187K 19 Open
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? $71K 15 Open
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? $61K 5 Open
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? $103K 22 Open
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? $115K 24 Open
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House $155K 16 Open
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? $121K 22 Open
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? $62K 11 Open
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? $116K 11 Open
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? $836K 71 Open
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? $52K 6 Open
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? $453K 67 Won: No
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? $54K 22 Won: No
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? $241K 46 Won: No
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? $160K 38 Won: Yes
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? $248K 42 Won: Yes
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? $89K 20 Won: No
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? $73K 18 Won: Yes
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? $384K 43 Won: No
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? $60K 16 Open
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? $63K 6 Open
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? $139K 9 Open
Trump renames AI by September 30? $62K 15 Won: Yes
Trump out as President by September 30? $64K 11 Won: No
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? $168K 18 Won: No
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? $77K 16 Won: Yes
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? $53K 14 Won: Yes
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? $134K 17 Won: No
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? $2.16M 227 Won: Yes
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? $304K 22 Won: Yes
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? $117K 30 Won: Yes
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? $89K 12 Won: No
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? $179K 37 Won: No
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? $72K 18 Won: No
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? $86K 7 Won: No
Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? $93K 9 Won: No
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? $148K 13 Won: No
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? $4.73M 318 Won: Yes
Fed rate hike in 2026? $319K 42 Won: Yes
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? $4.11M 357 Won: No
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? $3.60M 62 Won: No
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? $130K 10 Won: Yes
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? $126K 30 Won: Yes
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? $797K 41 Won: No
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? $73K 8 Won: No
Will LAPTOP flip TRUMP by December 31, 2026? $56K 12 Won: Yes
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026? $132K 26 Won: No
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? $141K 24 Won: Yes
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? $72K 15 Won: No

A market is listed once whales put at least $50K from 3 or more whales into it. Whale money is what they spent buying; "Won" is the outcome the market settled on. All categories · How it's measured.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
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