Polymarket market · Politics & macro

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Open as of the last weekly run · See it on Polymarket ↗

32 whales put $377K into this market since Aug 20, 100% of their buying on No. It hadn't resolved as of the last weekly run.

The whales on this market

biggest 25 of 32
Whale · recordBackedBoughtSold
Powerful-Election
17 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 99¢ $79K —
Submissive-Clan
8 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 99.31¢ $51K —
Damp-Accountant
21 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 99.3¢ $48K —
Single-Air
5 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 99.5¢ $25K —
Tragic-Scorpion
2 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 99.2¢ $7.4K $16K
Opulent-Right
31 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 99.19¢ $20K —
Shocked-Anagram
35 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 99.9¢ $16K —
0x1970…398d
no settled record
No @ 99¢ $15K —
Kaleidoscopic-Camp
20 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 99.04¢ $7.7K —
0xce78…4bcc
no settled record
No @ 99.7¢ $7.5K —
Cheerful-Ephemera
50 settled bets Can't tell from luck
sold only $0 $6.6K
Youthful-Tug
4 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 99.68¢ $6.5K —
Fearless-Misnomer
34 settled bets Worse than the odds
No @ 99.6¢ $6.3K —
0xcd46…58a6
no settled record
sold only $0 $5.6K
0xe54f…94f0
no settled record
No @ 99.8¢ $5.0K —
Pungent-Washbasin
2 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 99.3¢ $5.0K —
Forsaken-Outhouse
2 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 99.3¢ $5.0K —
0x0029…d342
no settled record
No @ 98¢ $4.7K —
Querulous-Futon
42 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 99.8¢ $4.2K —
Imaginative-River
37 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 98¢ $3.5K —
Indelible-Try
29 settled bets Can't tell from luck
No @ 99.8¢ $3.5K —
0x3e82…17c7
no settled record
No @ 99.8¢ $3.4K —
0x0b21…deb6
no settled record
No @ 98¢ $3.2K —
0xb20a…d09d
no settled record
No @ 99.5¢ $3.1K —
Well-Off-Baggie
1 settled bets Too few bets
No @ 98¢ $3.0K —

Where the whale money went

  1. No
    $344K
    100% of whale buying · 28 buyers · $32K sold

From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Aug 20 to Oct 9, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the weekly run. How profit is counted.

Results and records from the weekly run (1791223421).

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed