Polymarket market · Politics & macro
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?
Open as of the last daily run · See it on Polymarket ↗
9 whales traded $52K on this market since Oct 11, 52% of their buying on No. Copying their buys off the order book we recorded about 3 minutes later would have cost 0.8¢ more per share, with 100% of the size there to buy. It hadn't resolved as of the last daily run.
The whales on this market
9 whales| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moist-Dame
18 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $15K |
| Wry-Friction-Banquette
3 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $14K |
| Grubby-Chandelier
10 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 95¢ | $9.5K | — |
| Vibrant-Vintner
8 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 4¢ | $4.5K | — |
| Grounded-Depression
33 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 4¢ | $2.2K | $1.7K |
| 0x384f…cede
no settled record |
sold only | $0 | $1.8K |
| Fine-Reader
1 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $1.2K |
| Simple-Tradition
33 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 5¢ | $1.2K | — |
| Personal-Bake
19 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 4¢ | $1.1K | — |
Where the whale money went
-
No$9.5K52% of whale buying · 1 buyer · $32K sold
-
Yes$8.9K48% of whale buying · 4 buyers · $1.7K sold
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 11 to Oct 12, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1791874803).
More politics & macro markets the whales bet on
All Politics & macro →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | $116K | 25 | Open | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $1.29M | 157 | Open | |
| Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | $62K | 6 | Open | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | $1.24M | 102 | Open | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | $858K | 73 | Open | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | $380K | 56 | Open | |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | $66K | 12 | Open | |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | $165K | 27 | Open |