Polymarket market · Politics & macro
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Resolved: No won · See it on Polymarket ↗
22 whales put $54K into this market since Aug 22, 66% of their buying on Yes. No won. Of the 18 whales whose whole position we captured, 7 made +$10K and 11 lost −$31K: −$21K between them.
The whales on this market
22 whales| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloudy-Eveningwear
6 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 57¢ | $8.1K | — | −$8.1K |
| Dental-Liquid
29 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 57¢ | $5.6K | — | −$5.6K |
| Charming-Cub-Exit
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 47¢ | $4.8K | — | −$4.8K |
| 0xc8b9…b836
9 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 87¢ | $4.2K | — | +$618 |
| Unlined-Clothes
1 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 50¢ | $3.7K | — | +$3.7K |
| Sardonic-Lentil
30 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 62¢ | $2.4K | — | −$2.4K |
| Unacceptable-Barn
93 settled bets Beat the odds* |
No @ 99.9¢ | $2.2K | — | +$2 |
| Loathsome-Tram
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 50¢ | $2.1K | — | −$2.1K |
| Rotten-Order
3 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $1.9K | — |
| Monstrous-Dew
371 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 51¢ | $1.9K | — | −$1.9K |
| Fearful-Congress
34 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 40¢ | $1.9K | — | +$2.8K |
| Different-Rubric
3 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $1.8K | — |
| Worthy-Brotherinlaw
1 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $1.8K | — |
| Studious-Crush
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 54¢ | $1.8K | — | −$1.8K |
| 0x88b5…205c
8 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 50¢ | $1.5K | — | +$1.5K |
| Oblong-Pioneer
5 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 45¢ | $1.4K | — | +$1.7K |
| Dark-Corduroy-Airfare
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 60¢ | $1.4K | — | −$1.4K |
| Pristine-Tail
2 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 47¢ | $1.2K | — | −$1.2K |
| Velvety-Burn
111 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 90¢ | $1.1K | — | +$127 |
| Each-Summary
43 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 54¢ | $1.1K | — | −$1.1K |
| Handy-Ruffle
7 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $1.0K | — |
| 0xce2e…4257
7 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 56¢ | $1.0K | — | −$1.0K |
Where the whale money went
-
Yes lost$31K66% of whale buying · 11 buyers · $1.0K sold
-
No won$16K34% of whale buying · 7 buyers · $5.6K sold
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Aug 22 to Oct 5, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1791710133).
More politics & macro markets the whales bet on
All Politics & macro →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | $241K | 46 | Won: No | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $160K | 38 | Won: Yes | |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | $248K | 42 | Won: Yes | |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | $89K | 20 | Won: No | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | $73K | 18 | Won: Yes | |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $453K | 67 | Won: No | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $384K | 43 | Won: No | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | $60K | 16 | Open |