Polymarket market · Politics & macro
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Resolved: Yes won · See it on Polymarket ↗
38 whales put $160K into this market since Aug 28, 57% of their buying on No. Yes won. Of the 27 whales whose whole position we captured, 12 made +$61K and 15 lost −$63K: −$1.4K between them.
The whales on this market
biggest 25 of 38| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yellow-Dress-Ballet
14 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 27¢ | $16K | — | +$43K |
| Harsh-Macro
71 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 65¢ | $15K | — | −$15K |
| Careful-Bunch
80 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 76¢ | $8.9K | $3.0K | — |
| Dearest-Agenda
26 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 95¢ | $10K | — | +$517 |
| Wobbly-Pants
26 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 78¢ | $7.9K | $1.1K | −$6.9K |
| Anchored-Conformation
1 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 84¢ | $7.3K | — | −$7.3K |
| Rotten-Order
3 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 75¢ | $6.0K | — | −$6.0K |
| Crowded-Distance
22 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 32¢ | $4.4K | $1.5K | +$5.3K |
| Fabulous-Online
8 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 75¢ | $5.6K | — | −$5.6K |
| Determined-Valuable
15 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 89¢ | $4.7K | — | +$612 |
| Poised-Entertainment
5 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 74¢ | $1.4K | $3.2K | — |
| Outrageous-Greens
2 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $4.3K | — |
| Tense-Precedent
11 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 97¢ | $4.2K | — | +$146 |
| Zesty-Disappointment
23 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $4.0K | — |
| Dental-Liquid
29 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $4.0K | — |
| Velvety-Rutabaga
6 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 96¢ | $3.9K | — | +$174 |
| Rare-Azimuth
1 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 75¢ | $3.8K | — | −$3.8K |
| Fearless-Misnomer
35 settled bets Worse than the odds |
Yes @ 99¢ | $1.8K | $1.6K | — |
| Unwelcome-Fig
3 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 72¢ | $3.3K | — | −$3.3K |
| Unlined-Understanding-Politician
9 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 99.9¢ | $2.9K | — | +$3 |
| Prudent-Bracelet-Proceedings
16 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 67¢ | $2.5K | — | −$2.5K |
| Velvety-Burn
111 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 76¢ | $2.3K | — | −$2.3K |
| Required-Tactics
2 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 74¢ | $2.2K | — | −$2.2K |
| Giddy-Seeder
2 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 75¢ | $2.2K | — | −$2.2K |
| Splendid-Collection
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 85¢ | $2.2K | — | +$381 |
Where the whale money went
-
No lost$74K57% of whale buying · 17 buyers · $12K sold
-
Yes won$56K43% of whale buying · 13 buyers · $18K sold
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Aug 28 to Oct 5, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1791710133).
More politics & macro markets the whales bet on
All Politics & macro →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | $241K | 46 | Won: No | |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | $248K | 42 | Won: Yes | |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | $89K | 20 | Won: No | |
| Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $54K | 22 | Won: No | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | $73K | 18 | Won: Yes | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $384K | 43 | Won: No | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | $60K | 16 | Open | |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $453K | 67 | Won: No |