Polymarket market · Politics & macro
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?
Resolved: No won · See it on Polymarket ↗
12 whales traded $81K on this market since Oct 12, 98% of their buying on No. Copying their buys off the order book we recorded about 4 minutes later would have cost 1.2¢ less per share, with 100% of the size there to buy. No won, with 98% of the whale buying on it. Of the 7 whales whose whole position we captured, 6 made +$2.6K and 1 lost −$1.2K: +$1.3K between them. Biggest win: Witty-Conviction, +$1.4K on No. Biggest loss: Intentional-Cane-Flow, −$1.2K on Yes.
The whales on this market
12 whales| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shocked-Anagram
38 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 99.9¢ | $50K | — | +$50 |
| Determined-Valuable
16 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $8.0K | — |
| Sudden-Snowstorm
46 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 99.7¢ | $2.0K | $2.5K | — |
| Key-Sovereignty
49 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $3.7K | — |
| Witty-Conviction
5 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 67¢ | $2.8K | — | +$1.4K |
| Generous-Decisionmaking
3 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 77¢ | $2.5K | — | +$747 |
| Decimal-Artery
2 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $2.2K | — |
| Unripe-Whisker
72 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 99.8¢ | $1.9K | — | +$4 |
| Cheerful-Ephemera
62 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 80¢ | $1.7K | — | +$419 |
| Flippant-Speech
4 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $1.4K | — |
| Cooperative-Gasket
4 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 99.9¢ | $1.3K | — | +$1 |
| Intentional-Cane-Flow
11 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 34¢ | $1.2K | — | −$1.2K |
Where the whale money went
-
No won$62K98% of whale buying · 7 buyers · $18K sold
-
Yes lost$1.2K2% of whale buying · 1 buyer
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 12 to Oct 15, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1792134019).
More politics & macro markets the whales bet on
All Politics & macro →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | $356K | 39 | Open | |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | $164K | 32 | Open | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | $71K | 14 | Open | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | $191K | 37 | Open | |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | $51K | 5 | Open | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | $76K | 24 | Open | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | $149K | 11 | Open | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | $172K | 20 | Open |