Polymarket market · Politics & macro
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
Resolved: No won · See it on Polymarket ↗
46 whales put $241K into this market since Sep 6, 71% of their buying on No. No won. Of the 40 whales whose whole position we captured, 20 made +$11K and 20 lost −$60K: −$49K between them.
The whales on this market
biggest 25 of 46| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4488…e319
69 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 99.09¢ | $32K | — | +$291 |
| 0x88b5…205c
8 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 92¢ | $21K | — | +$1.8K |
| Dearest-Agenda
26 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 92¢ | $21K | — | +$1.7K |
| Extroverted-Tofu
2 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $19K | — |
| Attractive-Pigsty-Leeway
51 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 98¢ | $15K | — | +$275 |
| Rundown-Regard
5 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 94¢ | $13K | — | +$821 |
| Monstrous-Dew
325 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 74¢ | $12K | — | −$12K |
| Careful-Bunch
77 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 94¢ | $5.1K | $3.8K | +$138 |
| Insignificant-Agency
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 71¢ | $7.9K | — | −$7.9K |
| Trusting-Bungalow
12 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 95¢ | $7.7K | — | +$403 |
| Starry-Studio
6 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 99¢ | $6.0K | — | +$80 |
| Animated-Chalice-Mammoth
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 88¢ | $5.6K | — | −$5.6K |
| Well-Worn-Wriggler
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 4¢ | $4.2K | — | −$4.2K |
| Prudent-Bracelet-Proceedings
15 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 68¢ | $4.2K | — | −$2.2K |
| Admirable-Trust
3 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 99.25¢ | $4.0K | — | +$30 |
| Fearless-Misnomer
34 settled bets Worse than the odds |
No @ 98¢ | $3.9K | — | +$80 |
| Gleaming-Input-Health
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 76¢ | $3.8K | — | −$3.8K |
| Grubby-Checkbook
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 72¢ | $2.9K | — | −$2.9K |
| Sarcastic-Commandment
2 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $2.9K | — |
| Pushy-Thunderstorm
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 63¢ | $2.9K | — | −$2.9K |
| Inborn-Manservant-Cheetah
2 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 71¢ | $1.2K | $1.7K | — |
| Klutzy-Editor
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 72¢ | $2.8K | — | −$2.8K |
| Harsh-Macro
66 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $2.7K | — |
| Darling-Overweight-Purse
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 75¢ | $2.3K | — | −$2.3K |
| Yellow-Dress-Ballet
15 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 32¢ | $2.3K | — | +$5.0K |
Where the whale money went
-
No won$147K71% of whale buying · 21 buyers · $27K sold
-
Yes lost$61K30% of whale buying · 21 buyers · $5.8K sold
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Sep 6 to Oct 5, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the weekly run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the weekly run (1791223421).