2026 US midterms
Where the whales bet on the 2026 midterms
Updated , from run 1791788420
Whales have traded $2.61M in 18 Polymarket markets on the 2026 US midterms, which are on Nov 3, 2026. The most money is on “Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?”: $372K from 54 whales, 93% of their buying on Yes.
For scale: Polymarket whales won 59.6% of their 2,633 settled politics & macro positions and lost $1.24M overall (−7.0% on the money they put in). Winning most bets still lost money: the prices paid were too high for how often they won. By return, politics & macro comes 5th of the 5 market types with 1,000+ positions.
Where whales put money is not a forecast, and following it is not a strategy: when we copied the best whales at prices a follower could get, the copies lost (the copy-trading test). This page keeps score as the markets settle.
Control of Congress
7 markets| Market | Whale money | Whales | Whale buying | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | $372K | 54 | Yes 93% · No 7% | Open |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | $351K | 38 | No 81% · Yes 19% | Open |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | $320K | 35 | No 79% · Yes 18% · Yes 3% | Open |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | $188K | 20 | No 68% · Yes 32% | Open |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | $178K | 33 | Yes 86% · No 13% · Yes 1% | Open |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | $171K | 18 | Yes 89% · No 11% | Open |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | $115K | 24 | Yes 57% · No 43% | Open |
Senate races
9 markets| Market | Whale money | Whales | Whale buying | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | $155K | 25 | Yes 80% · No 20% | Open |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | $152K | 25 | Yes 79% · No 21% | Open |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | $103K | 22 | Yes 89% · No 11% | Open |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | $78K | 18 | Yes 82% · No 18% | Open |
| Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | $64K | 6 | No 62% · Yes 38% | Open |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | $64K | 18 | Yes 77% · No 23% | Open |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | $62K | 11 | No 63% · Yes 37% | Open |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | $53K | 11 | Yes 89% · No 11% | Open |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | $52K | 6 | Yes 78% · No 22% | Open |
Governor races
1 market| Market | Whale money | Whales | Whale buying | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | $51K | 8 | Yes 89% · No 11% | Open |
Other midterm markets
1 market| Market | Whale money | Whales | Whale buying | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | $79K | 4 | Yes 100% | Open |
Polymarket markets on the 2026 US midterms that drew whale money over our floor, matched by title. Whale money is what they traded, bought plus sold; "whale buying" is how their buying split between the outcomes. Updated with the daily run. Every whale market in politics: politics & macro. How it's measured.