Polymarket market · Politics & macro
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Resolved: No won · See it on Polymarket ↗
17 whales traded $56K on this market since Oct 8, 90% of their buying on Yes. Copying their buys off the order book we recorded about 3 minutes later would have cost 3.2¢ more per share, with 63% of the size there to buy. No won, with 10% of the whale buying on it. Of the 13 whales whose whole position we captured, 2 made +$2.7K and 11 lost −$40K: −$38K between them. Biggest win: Hasty-Dog-Climate, +$1.6K on No. Biggest loss: Determined-Tomato, −$15K on Yes.
The whales on this market
17 whales| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Determined-Tomato
17 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 42¢ | $15K | — | −$15K |
| Plastic-Pet
102 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
Yes @ 20¢ | $5.0K | — | −$5.0K |
| Deserted-Patch-Executor
1 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 27¢ | $4.9K | — | −$4.9K |
| Close-Wording
24 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $4.0K | — |
| Hard-To-Find-World
3 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 36¢ | $1.1K | $2.3K | — |
| Liquid-Chocolate
2 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 50¢ | $3.0K | — | −$3.0K |
| Sardonic-Lentil
48 settled bets Worse than the odds |
Yes @ 40¢ | $2.7K | — | −$2.7K |
| Hasty-Dog-Climate
5 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 61¢ | $2.4K | — | +$1.6K |
| Athletic-Curiosity
24 settled bets Worse than the odds |
Yes @ 48¢ | $2.3K | — | −$2.3K |
| Obvious-Geyser-Cutlet
173 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 66¢ | $2.2K | — | +$1.1K |
| Single-Antique
2 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $2.1K | — |
| Metallic-Lobster-Manipulation
4 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 43¢ | $2.0K | — | −$2.0K |
| Valid-Textual-Winery
2 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 47¢ | $1.7K | — | −$1.7K |
| Cloudy-Eveningwear
7 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 40¢ | $1.4K | — | −$1.4K |
| Careful-Bunch
116 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $1.2K | — |
| Murky-Cynic
2 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 44¢ | $1.1K | — | −$1.1K |
| Insistent-Voice
6 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 53¢ | $1.1K | — | −$1.1K |
Where the whale money went
-
Yes lost$41K90% of whale buying · 12 buyers · $8.3K sold
-
No won$4.6K10% of whale buying · 2 buyers · $1.2K sold
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Oct 8 to Oct 25, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1793084411).
More politics & macro markets the whales bet on
All Politics & macro →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? | $243K | 28 | Open | |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | $280K | 54 | Won: No | |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | $180K | 36 | Open | |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $4.23M | 419 | Won: No | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $3.24M | 326 | Won: Yes | |
| Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election? | $507K | 102 | Won: Yes | |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | $77K | 11 | Open | |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | $103K | 21 | Won: Yes |
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?