Whale leaderboard

Profit marked against how each market actually resolved, for wallets betting $1,000+ at a time. Every row shows how many bets it rests on and whether the record beats luck.

Polymarket Limitless

Before you copy anyone on this list: we picked the top 20% from the earlier weeks and copied their next trades, entries and exits, at the prices a follower could actually get. The whales made −4.5%; the copier made −7.0% (2,053 positions, out of sample).

#	Wallet	Profit	Skill or luck?	Won	Bets	Return	By window
1	Substantial-Service 0x2c33…0563 · sports −$662K 670 bets · won 53% Beat the odds*	−$662K	Beat the odds*	53.0% 49%–57%	670	−4.4%	w1 −$815K w2 +$414K w3 −$261K
2	Glaring-Salt 0xfe78…0319 · other −$659K 1,449 bets · won 50% Can't tell from luck	−$659K	Can't tell from luck	50.0% 47%–53%	1,449	−7.5%	w1 −$454K w2 +$34K w3 −$239K
3	0x78be…bde0 sports −$521K 194 bets · won 44% Can't tell from luck	−$521K	Can't tell from luck	43.8% 37%–51%	194	−23.3%	w1 +$19K w2 −$498K w3 −$43K
4	Serpentine-Cue 0x5dab…22e1 · sports −$503K 26 bets · won 31% Can't tell from luck	−$503K	Can't tell from luck	30.8% 17%–50%	26	−74.9%	w1 −$395K w2 −$108K
5	Present-Grape-Drinking 0x168a…0d24 · sports −$492K 21 bets · won 43% Can't tell from luck	−$492K	Can't tell from luck	42.9% 25%–64%	21	−12.2%	w1 −$26K w2 −$46K w3 −$421K
6	Favorable-Pepper-Brushing 0x9e3e…f882 · sports −$410K 888 bets · won 49% Worse than the odds	−$410K	Worse than the odds	49.1% 46%–52%	888	−16.4%	w1 −$120K w2 −$179K w3 −$111K
7	Shoddy-Harmonise 0xf28e…cab2 · sports −$384K 68 bets · won 44% Can't tell from luck	−$384K	Can't tell from luck	44.1% 33%–56%	68	−18.6%	w1 +$82K w2 −$207K w3 −$260K
8	Well-Documented-Outrigger 0x7c37…6aeb · esports −$383K 118 bets · won 46% Can't tell from luck	−$383K	Can't tell from luck	45.8% 37%–55%	118	−12.2%	w1 +$10K w2 −$325K w3 −$68K
9	Boring-Musician 0x6754…e3bc · sports −$312K 88 bets · won 49% Can't tell from luck	−$312K	Can't tell from luck	48.9% 39%–59%	88	−13.4%	w2 −$156K w3 −$156K
10	Brisk-Clockwork-Behalf 0x821d…cf16 · other −$272K 3,172 bets · won 72% Can't tell from luck	−$272K	Can't tell from luck	71.5% 70%–73%	3,172	−1.9%	w1 −$29K w2 −$283K w3 +$41K
11	Courageous-Robin 0xdb85…152f · other −$259K 67 bets · won 45% Can't tell from luck	−$259K	Can't tell from luck	44.8% 34%–57%	67	−15.5%	w1 −$142K w2 −$117K
12	Feisty-Mention 0x4d30…a42d · other −$257K 59 bets · won 41% Can't tell from luck	−$257K	Can't tell from luck	40.7% 29%–53%	59	−21.4%	w1 −$100K w2 −$155K w3 −$2.3K
13	Dearest-Urge 0xf201…527e · esports −$255K 285 bets · won 53% Can't tell from luck	−$255K	Can't tell from luck	52.6% 47%–58%	285	−13.0%	w1 +$39K w2 −$206K w3 −$88K
14	Sparse-Outset 0x67ac…edf1 · other −$244K 299 bets · won 62% Can't tell from luck	−$244K	Can't tell from luck	61.9% 56%–67%	299	−9.2%	w1 −$165K w2 −$158K w3 +$79K
15	Unwieldy-Collagen 0x4bff…fc26 · sports −$214K 75 bets · won 45% Can't tell from luck	−$214K	Can't tell from luck	45.3% 35%–57%	75	−10.0%	w1 +$4.2K w2 −$236K w3 +$17K
16	Gleeful-Cauliflower 0x2a69…d2f7 · other −$194K 3,235 bets · won 70% Can't tell from luck	−$194K	Can't tell from luck	70.3% 69%–72%	3,235	−1.7%	w1 −$168K w2 −$96K w3 +$70K
17	Admired-Doubter 0x0e60…3bad · sports −$186K 81 bets · won 32% Can't tell from luck	−$186K	Can't tell from luck	32.1% 23%–43%	81	−36.9%	w1 −$54K w2 −$130K w3 −$2.4K
18	Pristine-Hatred 0x0a39…b0b9 · sports −$182K 96 bets · won 45% Can't tell from luck	−$182K	Can't tell from luck	44.8% 35%–55%	96	−12.4%	w1 −$61K w2 −$153K w3 +$32K
19	Misty-Request 0x52ec…a6f3 · esports −$166K 155 bets · won 45% Can't tell from luck	−$166K	Can't tell from luck	45.2% 38%–53%	155	−13.5%	w1 −$10K w2 −$116K w3 −$40K
20	Unequaled-Shingle 0x4be1…aa70 · sports −$164K 20 bets · won 40% Can't tell from luck	−$164K	Can't tell from luck	40.0% 22%–61%	20	−50.1%	w1 −$108K w2 +$28K w3 −$84K
21	Rash-Copying 0x5f65…2036 · sports −$163K 124 bets · won 40% Can't tell from luck	−$163K	Can't tell from luck	39.5% 31%–48%	124	−11.7%	w1 −$158K w2 −$4.5K
22	Fake-Bitter 0xdc41…dd7e · politics/macro −$135K 995 bets · won 55% Can't tell from luck	−$135K	Can't tell from luck	54.7% 52%–58%	995	−2.4%	w1 +$63K w2 −$224K w3 +$27K
23	Productive-Vertigo 0xe361…ae44 · esports −$133K 71 bets · won 56% Can't tell from luck	−$133K	Can't tell from luck	56.3% 45%–67%	71	−15.3%	w1 −$4.4K w2 −$126K w3 −$2.8K
24	Frail-Possible 0x204f…5e14 · other −$127K 629 bets · won 73% Can't tell from luck	−$127K	Can't tell from luck	73.1% 70%–76%	629	−4.3%	w1 −$127K
25	Standard-Tarragon 0x689f…259c · sports −$123K 115 bets · won 37% Worse than the odds	−$123K	Worse than the odds	37.4% 29%–47%	115	−36.9%	w1 −$10K w2 −$92K w3 −$21K
26	Small-Folder 0x8239…d9a3 · sports −$122K 28 bets · won 57% Can't tell from luck	−$122K	Can't tell from luck	57.1% 39%–74%	28	−23.6%	w1 −$24K w2 +$25K w3 −$122K
27	Rosy-Trinket 0x6ac5…4b6e · esports −$120K 79 bets · won 47% Can't tell from luck	−$120K	Can't tell from luck	46.8% 36%–58%	79	−5.8%	w1 +$6.2K w2 −$20K w3 −$106K
28	Creative-Midwife 0x79ae…9a4a · other −$118K 151 bets · won 36% Can't tell from luck	−$118K	Can't tell from luck	35.8% 29%–44%	151	−9.8%	w1 −$18K w2 +$20K w3 −$121K
29	Short-Term-Valance 0xd696…8a49 · sports −$117K 107 bets · won 46% Can't tell from luck	−$117K	Can't tell from luck	45.8% 37%–55%	107	−23.1%	w1 +$38K w2 −$19K w3 −$136K
30	Lovely-Orchard-Stool 0x927c…6633 · sports −$113K 87 bets · won 40% Worse than the odds	−$113K	Worse than the odds	40.2% 31%–51%	87	−28.6%	w1 −$23K w2 −$21K w3 −$68K
31	Dual-Criticism 0xbc43…96d3 · sports −$110K 66 bets · won 39% Can't tell from luck	−$110K	Can't tell from luck	39.4% 28%–52%	66	−14.6%	w1 +$26K w2 +$7.1K w3 −$143K
32	Ultimate-Underpass 0xc69b…2076 · esports −$106K 184 bets · won 58% Can't tell from luck	−$106K	Can't tell from luck	57.6% 50%–65%	184	−11.9%	w1 −$111K w2 +$5.6K w3 −$416
33	Yawning-Chicken 0xe911…3d4e · other −$103K 216 bets · won 62% Worse than the odds	−$103K	Worse than the odds	62.0% 55%–68%	216	−15.9%	w1 −$37K w2 −$26K w3 −$40K
34	Meager-Flair-Wait 0x2180…08f0 · sports −$102K 24 bets · won 38% Can't tell from luck	−$102K	Can't tell from luck	37.5% 21%–57%	24	−56.2%	w3 −$102K
35	Neighboring-Bunkhouse 0x6ac9…e85a · sports −$102K 73 bets · won 62% Can't tell from luck	−$102K	Can't tell from luck	61.6% 50%–72%	73	−18.3%	w1 −$13K w2 −$61K w3 −$28K
36	Ironclad-Instructor 0xa2c9…2c23 · other −$101K 77 bets · won 74% Can't tell from luck	−$101K	Can't tell from luck	74.0% 63%–83%	77	−9.7%	w1 −$15K w2 −$9.2K w3 −$77K
37	Massive-Registry 0xaaaa…74d8 · sports −$99K 26 bets · won 35% Can't tell from luck	−$99K	Can't tell from luck	34.6% 19%–54%	26	−57.6%	w1 −$8.2K w2 −$19K w3 −$72K
38	Thrifty-Brother-Deputy 0xde31…df79 · other −$99K 32 bets · won 41% Can't tell from luck	−$99K	Can't tell from luck	40.6% 26%–58%	32	−21.2%	w1 −$126K w2 +$31K w3 −$4.1K
39	Radiant-Birdhouse 0xc3c3…eec8 · sports −$96K 125 bets · won 39% Can't tell from luck	−$96K	Can't tell from luck	39.2% 31%–48%	125	−27.6%	w1 −$96K
40	Decent-Armrest 0xfc25…1f7f · esports −$95K 189 bets · won 94% Can't tell from luck	−$95K	Can't tell from luck	94.2% 90%–97%	189	−5.6%	w1 −$40K w2 −$9.4K w3 −$45K
41	Narrow-Authorization 0xb3cf…0ebd · other −$94K 57 bets · won 74% Can't tell from luck	−$94K	Can't tell from luck	73.7% 61%–83%	57	−12.7%	w1 +$6.9K w2 −$57K w3 −$44K
42	Trivial-Ravioli 0xccd8…f4de · other −$93K 228 bets · won 83% Worse than the odds	−$93K	Worse than the odds	82.5% 77%–87%	228	−2.3%	w1 −$93K w2 −$22K w3 +$22K
43	Nutty-Schnitzel 0x2e6c…0c51 · sports −$93K 22 bets · won 36% Can't tell from luck	−$93K	Can't tell from luck	36.4% 20%–57%	22	−27.8%	w2 −$93K
44	Foolish-Mango 0x1b47…d814 · sports −$89K 222 bets · won 48% Can't tell from luck	−$89K	Can't tell from luck	48.2% 42%–55%	222	−7.6%	w1 −$10K w2 −$46K w3 −$33K
45	Mountainous-Heat-Reservoir 0xb4f9…c9a7 · other −$87K 104 bets · won 47% Can't tell from luck	−$87K	Can't tell from luck	47.1% 38%–57%	104	−9.6%	w1 +$17K w2 −$137K w3 +$33K
46	Tidy-Disappointment 0x568a…04d9 · other −$86K 21 bets · won 33% Can't tell from luck	−$86K	Can't tell from luck	33.3% 17%–55%	21	−28.5%	w2 −$66K w3 −$20K
47	Dutiful-Fur 0xc807…c12b · other −$84K 31 bets · won 42% Can't tell from luck	−$84K	Can't tell from luck	41.9% 26%–59%	31	−9.5%	w1 −$23K w2 −$15K w3 −$46K
48	General-Cloves 0x55a1…db28 · sports −$84K 42 bets · won 43% Can't tell from luck	−$84K	Can't tell from luck	42.9% 29%–58%	42	−21.0%	w1 +$393 w2 −$85K
49	0x0f00…73ce other −$83K 39 bets · won 21% Worse than the odds	−$83K	Worse than the odds	20.5% 11%–36%	39	−57.4%	w1 −$55K w2 −$29K
50	Minor-Donut-Candelabra 0x9c68…247a · sports −$83K 80 bets · won 35% Worse than the odds	−$83K	Worse than the odds	35.0% 26%–46%	80	−16.1%	w2 −$17K w3 −$66K

Only wallets with at least 20 settled bets are ranked (971 qualify). "Won" shows the share of bets that paid, with its 95% range underneath. "Skill or luck?" compares wins with the odds each bet was bought at. *About 1 wallet in 40 beats the odds by chance alone, so a "Beat the odds" badge is not proof of skill. "By window" splits profit into two-week periods (hover for dates).

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC

Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
latest window has the most unresolved markets
Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed