Glaring-Salt

0xfe787d2da716d60e8acff57fb87eb13cd4d10319

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$659K
return −7.5%
Settled bets
1,449
$8.74M staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 47%–53%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1,449 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: −$454K Sep 4 – Sep 20: +$34K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$239K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

In the live feed

$13K bought Predators at 62¢
$5.5K bought Over at 52¢
$6.1K bought Under at 53¢

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 Bought Marin Cilic at 33¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Fery vs Marin Cilic $3.3K
Oct 7 Bought Dominic Stephan Stricker at 51¢
Villena: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Laslo Djere
Villena: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Laslo Djere $2.1K
Oct 7 Bought Georgii Kravchenko at 37¢
Villena: Damir Dzumhur vs Georgii Kravchenko
Villena: Damir Dzumhur vs Georgii Kravchenko $1.4K
Oct 7 Bought Damir Dzumhur at 62¢
Villena: Damir Dzumhur vs Georgii Kravchenko
Villena: Damir Dzumhur vs Georgii Kravchenko $2.2K
Oct 7 Bought Coleman Wong at 15¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Quentin Halys vs Coleman Wong
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Quentin Halys vs Coleman Wong $6.9K
Oct 7 Bought Elena Pridankina at 41¢
Samsun: Elena Pridankina vs Anna Blinkova
Samsun: Elena Pridankina vs Anna Blinkova $3.7K
Oct 7 Bought Michael Zheng at 44¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yibing Wu vs Michael Zheng
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yibing Wu vs Michael Zheng $3.6K
Oct 7 Bought Yannick Hanfmann at 42¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yannick Hanfmann vs Kamil Majchrzak
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yannick Hanfmann vs Kamil Majchrzak $1.7K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed