Sardonic-Lentil
0x88c4919de76e526d55a32c1f8afb439dd1f1129a
Sardonic-Lentil: +$3.6K on 26 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 32%–68%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$3.6K
return +4.2%
Settled bets
26
$85K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 32%–68%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 16 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$11K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$4.6K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$12K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | SELL No
@ 84¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | $25K |
| Oct 6 | BUY No
@ 85¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $38K |
| Oct 6 | BUY No
@ 80¢
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? |
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? | $2.4K |
| Oct 6 | SELL No
@ 84¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | $17K |
| Oct 6 | BUY No
@ 82¢
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? |
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? | $5.0K |
| Oct 6 | SELL No
@ 84¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | $5.0K |
| Oct 6 | BUY No
@ 85¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | $35K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 83¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $1.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.