Shoddy-Harmonise
0xf28e42d20e4826f2b10a24bc952001697947cab2
Shoddy-Harmonise: −$384K on 68 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 44% (95% range 33%–56%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$384K
return −18.6%
Settled bets
68
$2.07M staked
Won
44.1%
95% range 33%–56%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 68 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$82K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$207K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$260K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | BUY Saints
@ 35¢
Falcons vs. Saints |
Falcons vs. Saints | $9.4K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Over
@ 48¢
Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 54.5 |
Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 54.5 | $22K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Saints
@ 31¢
Falcons vs. Saints |
Falcons vs. Saints | $18K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Over
@ 33¢
Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 64.5 |
Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 64.5 | $3.0K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Over
@ 38¢
Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 64.5 |
Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 64.5 | $3.0K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Under
@ 45¢
Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 61.5 |
Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 61.5 | $4.5K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Under
@ 45¢
Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 61.5 |
Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 61.5 | $4.3K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Lions
@ 50¢
Lions vs. Panthers |
Lions vs. Panthers | $6.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.