Lovely-Orchard-Stool

0x927cf2bb94d15707993f954552e56c74eb6d6633

Polymarket

Worse than the odds Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$113K
return −28.6%
Settled bets
87
$394K staked
Won
40.2%
95% range 31%–51%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 83 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: −$23K Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$21K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$68K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 4 Bought Seahawks at 80¢
Chargers vs. Seahawks
Chargers vs. Seahawks $11K
Oct 4 Bought Texans at 73¢
Cowboys vs. Texans
Cowboys vs. Texans $8.0K
Oct 4 Bought Packers at 43¢
Spread: Packers (-3.5)
Spread: Packers (-3.5) $4.0K
Oct 4 Bought Commanders at 49¢
Spread: Commanders (-1.5)
Spread: Commanders (-1.5) $3.1K
Oct 2 Bought Browns at 47¢
Spread: Browns (-9.5)
Spread: Browns (-9.5) $6.4K
Sep 27 Bought Seahawks at 79¢
Seahawks vs. Commanders
Seahawks vs. Commanders $1.6K
Sep 27 Bought Colts at 71¢
Texans vs. Colts
Texans vs. Colts $2.5K
Sep 27 Bought Charlotte at 22¢
Louisiana vs. Charlotte
Louisiana vs. Charlotte $4.6K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed