Well-Made-Sovereignty
0x01e6e3c5cfe50943e7721398054cb1e22032e7e0
Well-Made-Sovereignty: −$18K on 106 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 60% (95% range 51%–69%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$18K
return −4.9%
Settled bets
106
$379K staked
Won
60.4%
95% range 51%–69%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 102 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$1.4K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$8.3K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$12K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 67¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: GAM Esports vs FlyQuest - Game 1 Winner | $1.8K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 99¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner | $1.6K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 50¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner | $2.8K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 58¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $1.3K |
| Oct 6 | BUY FURIA
@ 61¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $2.3K |
| Oct 6 | BUY FURIA
@ 53¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $2.4K |
| Oct 6 | BUY FURIA
@ 53¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $2.9K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 39¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner | $2.9K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.