Small-Folder
0x82398835fe16616214d928ba87127e28fc1cd9a3
Small-Folder: −$122K on 28 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 57% (95% range 39%–74%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$122K
return −23.6%
Settled bets
28
$517K staked
Won
57.1%
95% range 39%–74%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 28 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$24K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$25K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$122K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | BUY Alexander Chavez
@ 52¢
Dana White's Contender Series: Roque Conceição vs. Alexander Chavez (Flyweight, Main Card) |
Dana White's Contender Series: Roque Conceição vs. Alexander Chavez (Flyweight, Main Card) | $3.5K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Alexander Chavez
@ 51¢
Dana White's Contender Series: Roque Conceição vs. Alexander Chavez (Flyweight, Main Card) |
Dana White's Contender Series: Roque Conceição vs. Alexander Chavez (Flyweight, Main Card) | $1.2K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Louisville
@ 82¢
Wake Forest vs. Louisville |
Wake Forest vs. Louisville | $30K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Under
@ 53¢
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 43.5 |
Falcons vs. Packers: O/U 43.5 | $6.9K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Eagles
@ 76¢
Eagles vs. Titans |
Eagles vs. Titans | $30K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Chargers
@ 73¢
Raiders vs. Chargers |
Raiders vs. Chargers | $95K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Dooho Choi
@ 71¢
UFC 331: Patricio Pitbull vs. Dooho Choi (Featherweight, Main Card) |
UFC 331: Patricio Pitbull vs. Dooho Choi (Featherweight, Main Card) | $16K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Rutgers
@ 54¢
Spread: USC (-22.5) |
Spread: USC (-22.5) | $2.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.