Favorable-Pepper-Brushing
0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882
Favorable-Pepper-Brushing: −$410K on 888 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 49% (95% range 46%–52%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Profit
−$410K
return −16.4%
Settled bets
888
$2.50M staked
Won
49.1%
95% range 46%–52%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 561 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$120K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$179K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$111K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | SELL FURIA
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner | $3.8K |
| Oct 7 | SELL FlyQuest
@ 99.6¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage |
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | $2.1K |
| Oct 7 | SELL Miguel Damas
@ 99.9¢
Braga: Johan Nikles vs Miguel Damas |
Braga: Johan Nikles vs Miguel Damas | $1.8K |
| Oct 7 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 64¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage |
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | $1.9K |
| Oct 7 | SELL HOTU
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs STATE (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs STATE (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs | $1.2K |
| Oct 7 | BUY FURIA
@ 72¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $1.5K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Yes
@ 11¢
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? |
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | $1.6K |
| Oct 7 | SELL Falcons Force
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: OG vs Falcons Force (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group A |
Counter-Strike: OG vs Falcons Force (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group A | $1.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.