Dearest-Urge

0xf201a19b43471261a3c1ba9247335d55270e527e

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$255K
return −13.0%
Settled bets
285
$1.97M staked
Won
52.6%
95% range 47%–58%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 199 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: +$39K Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$206K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$88K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 4 Bought LYON at 55¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 4 Winner
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 4 Winner $2.8K
Oct 4 Bought LYON at 55¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 4 Winner
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 4 Winner $3.6K
Oct 4 Bought Team Liquid at 55¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 3 Winner
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 3 Winner $12K
Oct 4 Bought Team Liquid at 85¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs $39K
Oct 4 Sold Team Liquid at 99¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 2 Winner
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 2 Winner $1.6K
Oct 4 Bought Team Liquid at 53¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 2 Winner
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 2 Winner $9.5K
Oct 4 Bought Team Liquid at 48¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 1 Winner
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 1 Winner $2.6K
Oct 4 Bought Team WE at 46¢
LoL: Team WE vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner
LoL: Team WE vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner $1.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed