Admired-Doubter

0x0e604be17c231a33dc01e38a722c7fe3984e3bad

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$186K
return −36.9%
Settled bets
81
$505K staked
Won
32.1%
95% range 23%–43%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 63 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: −$54K Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$130K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$2.4K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 Bought Alina Charaeva at 34¢
China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Qinwen Zheng
China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Qinwen Zheng $6.6K
Oct 7 Bought Alina Charaeva at 19¢
China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Qinwen Zheng
China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Qinwen Zheng $5.0K
Oct 7 Bought Yibing Wu at 57¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yibing Wu vs Michael Zheng
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yibing Wu vs Michael Zheng $3.4K
Oct 3 Bought Johnny Walker at 52¢
UFC 332: Johnny Walker vs. Mick Parkin (Heavyweight, Early Prelims)
UFC 332: Johnny Walker vs. Mick Parkin (Heavyweight, Early Prelims) $1.3K
Oct 3 Bought Pedro Boscardin Dias at 25¢
Curitiba: Gustavo Heide vs Pedro Boscardin Dias
Curitiba: Gustavo Heide vs Pedro Boscardin Dias $1.1K
Oct 3 Sold Mitchell Krueger at 17¢
Columbus: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Mitchell Krueger
Columbus: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Mitchell Krueger $1.4K
Oct 3 Sold Guido Justo at 99.9¢
Curitiba: Guido Justo vs Tomas Barrios
Curitiba: Guido Justo vs Tomas Barrios $2.8K
Oct 3 Sold Guido Justo at 99.9¢
Curitiba: Guido Justo vs Tomas Barrios
Curitiba: Guido Justo vs Tomas Barrios $7.8K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed