Ragged-Aspect-Earring
0xcbc666209b4c17ea84c03c0dda71b5dab9e4ec62
Ragged-Aspect-Earring: −$479K on 22 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 32% (95% range 16%–53%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$479K
return −41.8%
Settled bets
22
$1.14M staked
Won
31.8%
95% range 16%–53%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 21 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$253K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$225K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY FC Bayern München
@ 50¢
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) |
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) | $11K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Yes
@ 67¢
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? |
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? | $16K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Arsenal FC
@ 40¢
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) |
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) | $30K |
| Sep 29 | BUY Alex Molcan
@ 80¢
China Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Alex Molcan |
China Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Alex Molcan | $8.0K |
| Sep 27 | BUY Dolphins
@ 53¢
Spread: Chiefs (-10.5) |
Spread: Chiefs (-10.5) | $64K |
| Sep 27 | BUY Dolphins
@ 54¢
Spread: Chiefs (-10.5) |
Spread: Chiefs (-10.5) | $111K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Falcons
@ 50¢
Spread: Packers (-4.5) |
Spread: Packers (-4.5) | $4.7K |
| Sep 20 | BUY No
@ 29¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? |
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-20? | $103K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.