Courageous-Robin

0xdb859a551fcf56e49416160911476bea7307152f

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$259K
return −15.5%
Settled bets
67
$1.68M staked
Won
44.8%
95% range 34%–57%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 66 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: −$142K Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$117K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 8 Bought Boston Red Sox at 58¢
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox $28K
Sep 8 Bought Boston Red Sox at 58¢
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox $53K
Sep 8 Bought Yes at 45¢
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-08?
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-09-08? $4.1K
Sep 8 Bought Yes at 52¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-08?
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-08? $7.9K
Sep 8 Bought FaZe at 71¢
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs FaZe (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs FaZe (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B $2.1K
Sep 8 Bought Legacy at 68¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs magic (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs magic (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B $5.7K
Sep 7 Bought Learner Tien at 63¢
US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien
US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien $42K
Sep 6 Bought Cleveland Guardians at 61¢
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians $16K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed