Stylish-Warrant
Skill vs luck
Stylish-Warrant on Polymarket: 20 settled bets · won 35% (95% range 18%–57%) · profit −$26K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −8.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 18, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Stylish-Warrant: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 18, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x4b4071d1456249cd8d7272d533a3efe191aa2f6a. Data CC BY 4.0.
Stylish-Warrant: −$26K on 20 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 35% (95% range 18%–57%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 20 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- −$14K
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- +$5.6K
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- −$4.1K
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- −$14K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | BUY No @ 62¢ | Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-10-17? ↗ | $10K |
| Oct 17 | BUY No @ 43¢ | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-17? ↗ | $8.8K |
| Oct 17 | BUY No @ 43¢ | Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-17? ↗ | $16K |
| Oct 17 | BUY
@ 30¢
Brentford FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND Manchester City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners |
Brentford FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND Manchester City FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners | $3.4K |
| Oct 17 | BUY
@ 27¢
Brentford FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners |
Brentford FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners | $4.8K |
| Oct 14 | BUY VfB Stuttgart
@ 50¢
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5) |
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5) | $10K |
| Oct 13 | BUY No
@ 62¢
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-10-13? |
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-10-13? | $10K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Yes
@ 49¢
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-10-11? |
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-10-11? | $6.9K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?