Unwieldy-Collagen

0x4bff30af91642dc7d2b19a8664378fe55c45fc26

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$214K
return −10.0%
Settled bets
75
$2.15M staked
Won
45.3%
95% range 35%–57%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 75 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: +$4.2K Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$236K Sep 20 – Oct 5: +$17K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

In the live feed

$77K bought South Alabama at 53¢

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 Bought Blackhawks at 43¢
Blues vs. Blackhawks
Blues vs. Blackhawks $9.5K
Oct 6 Bought Over at 51¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 $3.1K
Oct 4 Bought Atlanta Braves at 32¢
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers $9.3K
Oct 4 Bought San Diego State at 25¢
Texas State vs. San Diego State
Texas State vs. San Diego State $5.6K
Oct 4 Bought San Diego State at 25¢
Texas State vs. San Diego State
Texas State vs. San Diego State $2.4K
Oct 4 Bought San Diego State at 24¢
Texas State vs. San Diego State
Texas State vs. San Diego State $4.5K
Oct 4 Bought San Diego State at 24¢
Texas State vs. San Diego State
Texas State vs. San Diego State $1.6K
Oct 3 Bought Army at 50¢
Army vs. Louisiana Tech
Army vs. Louisiana Tech $3.9K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed