Disloyal-Backyard
0xda856317923415a534d8952e6f8abde17c2e1ca7
Disloyal-Backyard: −$130K on 32 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 22% (95% range 11%–39%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Profit
−$130K
return −46.5%
Settled bets
32
$279K staked
Won
21.9%
95% range 11%–39%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 29 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$858
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$129K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY No
@ 90¢
Will FC Augsburg vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? |
Will FC Augsburg vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? | $30K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 42¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | $9.7K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Cameron Norrie
@ 35¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Dalibor Svrcina |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Dalibor Svrcina | $5.8K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Cameron Norrie
@ 35¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Dalibor Svrcina |
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Dalibor Svrcina | $5.8K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova
@ 12¢
China Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva |
China Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva | $1.5K |
| Oct 6 | BUY No
@ 14¢
Will England win on 2026-10-06? |
Will England win on 2026-10-06? | $2.6K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Belinda Bencic
@ 8¢
China Open: Belinda Bencic vs Ann Li |
China Open: Belinda Bencic vs Ann Li | $1.5K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Under
@ 44¢
Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 50.5 |
Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 50.5 | $8.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.