0x78be…bde0

0x78becf0a4e4f2640380af0c19ad32e2557e6bde0

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$521K
return −23.3%
Settled bets
194
$2.23M staked
Won
43.8%
95% range 37%–51%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 185 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: +$19K Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$498K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$43K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 4 Bought Inaki Montes at 37¢
Porto 2: Henrique Rocha vs Inaki Montes
Porto 2: Henrique Rocha vs Inaki Montes $2.2K
Oct 4 Bought Pedro Rodenas at 41¢
Braga: Olle Wallin vs Pedro Rodenas
Braga: Olle Wallin vs Pedro Rodenas $4.1K
Oct 4 Bought Samuele Pieri at 47¢
Bari: Juan Martin vs Samuele Pieri
Bari: Juan Martin vs Samuele Pieri $5.1K
Oct 3 Bought Illinois at 43¢
Purdue vs. Illinois
Purdue vs. Illinois $3.3K
Oct 3 Bought Maryland at 40¢
Maryland vs. Nebraska
Maryland vs. Nebraska $5.0K
Oct 3 Bought Guido Justo at 64¢
Curitiba: Guido Justo vs Tomas Barrios
Curitiba: Guido Justo vs Tomas Barrios $11K
Oct 3 Bought Leolia Jeanjean at 62¢
Adana: Antonia Ruzic vs Leolia Jeanjean
Adana: Antonia Ruzic vs Leolia Jeanjean $1.6K
Oct 3 Bought Sada Nahimana at 41¢
W35 Reims: Sada Nahimana vs Isis Louise Van den Broek
W35 Reims: Sada Nahimana vs Isis Louise Van den Broek $2.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed