Neighboring-Bunkhouse

0x6ac96d439f44a8dd84de19a781fcbbab5bdee85a

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗
Profit
−$102K
return −18.3%
Settled bets
73
$558K staked
Won
61.6%
95% range 50%–72%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 73 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Aug 20 – Sep 4: −$13K Sep 4 – Sep 20: −$61K Sep 20 – Oct 5: −$28K
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 4 Bought 49ers at 72¢
Broncos vs. 49ers
Broncos vs. 49ers $8.0K
Oct 4 Bought Seahawks at 46¢
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5) $17K
Oct 4 Bought Vikings at 82¢
Dolphins vs. Vikings
Dolphins vs. Vikings $7.1K
Oct 4 Bought Colts at 73¢
Colts vs. Commanders
Colts vs. Commanders $4.9K
Sep 28 Bought Rams at 74¢
Rams vs. Broncos
Rams vs. Broncos $19K
Sep 27 Bought Vikings at 71¢
Vikings vs. Buccaneers
Vikings vs. Buccaneers $8.1K
Sep 27 Bought Colts at 77¢
Texans vs. Colts
Texans vs. Colts $8.2K
Sep 27 Bought Seahawks at 77¢
Seahawks vs. Commanders
Seahawks vs. Commanders $3.5K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*) · computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed