Accuracy isn't profit
Is a high win rate a sign of a good trader?
Updated , from run 1791788420
No. Polymarket whales won 55.9% of their positions and are at −$7.44M combined. In crypto markets they won 76.3% of bets and still returned −1.9%.
Limitless whales won 44.7% of their positions and are at −$353K combined.
The price is the catch
A share that pays $1 if it wins and costs 85¢ has to win 85% of the time just to break even. Win more often than the price says and you make money; win less often and you lose it, however high the win rate looks. Here is what Polymarket whales paid, against how often those bets won:
| Price paid | Positions | Average price | Share that won | Overpaid per $1 share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longshots, under 20¢ | 1,382 | 14¢ | 9.3% | +4.9¢ |
| Middle, 20¢ to 80¢ | 58,841 | 54¢ | 51.0% | +3.4¢ |
| Favourites, 80¢ and up | 33,160 | 94¢ | 91.3% | +2.7¢ |
Positions held to the result. Overpaid = average price minus share that won, in cents per $1 share; a minus means they paid less than the bets turned out to be worth. Price by price: the Hopium Index.
Win rate and return don't line up
By market type, the highest win rates are not the best returns:
| Market type | Positions | Won | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 10,626 | 76.3% | −1.9% |
| Politics & macro | 2,633 | 59.6% | −7.0% |
| Other | 44,103 | 57.2% | +0.5% |
| Sports | 38,692 | 53.9% | −3.6% |
| Esports | 24,730 | 47.4% | +1.7% |
Polymarket market types with 1,000+ settled whale positions, highest win rate first. Return = profit ÷ money put in.
What to look at instead
- Return on the money, not the share of bets won.
- The sample. A win rate on a few dozen bets is a wide guess: the most profitable whale on our board, Webbed-Myth, won 55% of 60 settled bets, and the range that fits is 43% to 67%. Every win rate on our board shows its range.
- The price. Did the wallet win more often than its prices implied? That is the luck-vs-skill test.
The long answer to whether whales make money at all: do Polymarket whales make money?