Harsh-Macro
0x511f9c771449162349795d17becf8b37031acbe1
Harsh-Macro: −$16K on 66 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 88% (95% range 78%–94%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$16K
return −6.3%
Settled bets
66
$257K staked
Won
87.9%
95% range 78%–94%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 63 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$12K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$736
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$28K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | SELL Yes
@ 13¢
Will Croatia vs. Spain end in a draw? |
Will Croatia vs. Spain end in a draw? | $4.2K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? |
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | $1.2K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will Leonardo Badea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? |
Will Leonardo Badea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | $1.2K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 88¢
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? |
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | $1.1K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 99.55¢
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? |
Will Dan Motreanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | $1.2K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 99.36¢
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? |
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | $1.2K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 99.74¢
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania? |
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | $1.2K |
| Oct 4 | BUY No
@ 89¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? | $1.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.