Careful-Bunch
0x122cb94c437ea5e6f088c6c0c143c592ab8efbed
Careful-Bunch: −$3.9K on 77 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 56% (95% range 45%–66%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$3.9K
return −3.4%
Settled bets
77
$115K staked
Won
55.8%
95% range 45%–66%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 35 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$1.2K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$3.2K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$5.9K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 86¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? |
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 85¢
Will Spirit Win the ESL Pro League Season 24? |
Will Spirit Win the ESL Pro League Season 24? | $1.7K |
| Oct 9 | SELL No
@ 77¢
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 76¢
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | $1.5K |
| Oct 9 | SELL No
@ 80¢
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | SELL No
@ 61¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | SELL No
@ 62¢
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | $1.1K |
| Oct 8 | SELL Yes
@ 86¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $1.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.