Unwelcome-Fig
0xc46f094934bb4fc728d90aafb6b4acc06c073130
Unwelcome-Fig: −$3.3K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$3.3K
return −72.6%
Settled bets
3
$4.6K staked
Won
33.3%
95% range 6%–79%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 7
- +$13
- Sep 25 – Oct 13
- −$3.3K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.6%
(2,332 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | BUY No
@ 72¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $3.3K |
| Sep 30 | SELL No
@ 99.7¢
Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? |
Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | $1.3K |
| Aug 30 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? |
Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | $1.2K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.