Velvety-Burn
0x03805a13a0b3e058f55f6c6af95389d4f431073d
Velvety-Burn: −$2.0K on 111 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 92% (95% range 85%–96%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$2.0K
return −0.7%
Settled bets
111
$284K staked
Won
91.9%
95% range 85%–96%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 111 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$1.1K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$137
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$680
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? |
Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | $1.4K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? |
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? | $1.5K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 99.9¢
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? |
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? | $1.5K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 99.8¢
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? |
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? | $1.5K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 99.8¢
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? |
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? | $1.5K |
| Oct 4 | BUY No
@ 88¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $1.2K |
| Oct 4 | BUY No
@ 81¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $1.2K |
| Oct 4 | BUY No
@ 75¢
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.