Tense-Precedent
0xfb5148fc7223630e0967dbfa8cd920d83ab4742d
Tense-Precedent: +$5.0K on 11 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 82% (95% range 52%–95%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
+$5.0K
return +17.6%
Settled bets
11
$28K staked
Won
81.8%
95% range 52%–95%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 9 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$4.0K
- Sep 6 – Sep 24
- +$752
- Sep 24 – Oct 12
- +$290
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −10.9%
(2,374 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 87¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $14K |
| Oct 9 | SELL No
@ 96¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | $2.1K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Yes
@ 87¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | $3.8K |
| Oct 8 | SELL No
@ 97¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | $1.9K |
| Oct 8 | BUY No
@ 85¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | $8.8K |
| Oct 8 | SELL Yes
@ 88¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | $8.5K |
| Oct 6 | BUY No
@ 96¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | $1.4K |
| Oct 4 | BUY No
@ 99.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? |
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? | $2.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.