Wobbly-Pants
0x23d81ba9371e576015c1e562db09c689f56b0288
Wobbly-Pants: +$5.3K on 26 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 58% (95% range 39%–75%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$5.3K
return +2.3%
Settled bets
26
$226K staked
Won
57.7%
95% range 39%–75%
Mostly bets on
politics/macro
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 19 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$2.3K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$7.7K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$11K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
In the live feed
BUY
$21K
bought No
@ 67¢ → now 69¢ (+$463)
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | BUY No
@ 87¢
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | $2.9K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Yes
@ 32¢
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? |
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | $1.2K |
| Oct 4 | BUY No
@ 55¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá? |
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá? | $1.1K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Yes
@ 54¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá? |
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá? | $1.8K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes
@ 13¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? |
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? | $1.4K |
| Oct 3 | SELL No
@ 66¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | $21K |
| Oct 1 | BUY No
@ 52¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? |
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | $3.6K |
| Sep 30 | BUY Yes
@ 26¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? |
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | $3.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.