Polymarket market · Other
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Resolved: No won · See it on Polymarket ↗
34 whales put $268K into this market since Aug 20, 91% of their buying on No. No won. Of the 19 whales whose whole position we captured, 15 made +$2.1K and 4 lost −$11K: −$8.8K between them.
The whales on this market
biggest 25 of 34| Whale · record | Backed | Bought | Sold | Made on it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opulent-Right
43 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 96¢ | $12K | $12K | +$232 |
| Poised-Entertainment
5 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $24K | — |
| Rundown-Junker
4 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 99.3¢ | $20K | — | +$140 |
| Flickering-Ratio
2 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $16K | — |
| Zesty-Disappointment
23 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $16K | — |
| Whimsical-Terminal
8 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $15K | — |
| Self-Reliant-Distribution
11 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 96¢ | $15K | — | −$4.0K |
| Dark-Mansard
1 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 99.9¢ | $14K | — | +$14 |
| Mushy-Asymmetry
25 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 91¢ | $3.6K | $10K | — |
| Mellow-Settlement
80 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 99.07¢ | $4.2K | $9.0K | — |
| Nimble-Soliloquy
8 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $12K | — |
| Attached-Example-Anesthesiologist
64 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 98¢ | $11K | — | +$214 |
| Genuine-Segment
6 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 92¢ | $10K | — | +$864 |
| Peaceful-Lament-Sprat
3 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 99.3¢ | $9.3K | — | +$66 |
| Key-Sovereignty
46 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 99.9¢ | $6.3K | — | +$6 |
| International-Venue
1 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 99.9¢ | $6.0K | — | +$6 |
| Dental-Liquid
29 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $5.7K | — |
| Crowded-Distance
22 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
sold only | $0 | $5.3K | — |
| Near-Familiar
6 settled bets Too few bets |
Yes @ 9¢ | $4.6K | — | −$4.6K |
| Stark-Therapy
3 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 95¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$84 |
| Noted-Shop
6 settled bets Too few bets |
No @ 96¢ | $2.9K | — | +$113 |
| Imaginative-River
41 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 97¢ | $2.5K | — | +$80 |
| Humming-Estuary
1 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $2.2K | — |
| 0x1fd0…c6a7
39 settled bets Can't tell from luck |
No @ 99.42¢ | $1.5K | — | +$9 |
| Bare-Mambo
3 settled bets Too few bets |
sold only | $0 | $1.4K | — |
Where the whale money went
-
No won$120K91% of whale buying · 18 buyers · $132K sold
-
Yes lost$6.9K5% of whale buying · 3 buyers · $2.1K sold
-
No lost$4.5K3% of whale buying · 1 buyer · $1.8K sold
From the whale trades we capture ($1,000+) on this market, Aug 20 to Oct 4, 2026. Whether it resolved, and each whale's record, are from the daily run. “Made on it” is what each whale took out plus what its shares paid at the end ($1 for the winner, nothing for the rest), counting only trades we captured. A dash means it sold more than we saw it buy, so part of its position is missing and it's left out of the totals. How profit is counted.
Results and records from the run (1791710133).
More other markets the whales bet on
All Other →| Market | Whale money | Whales | Result | Last whale bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | $153K | 40 | Open | |
| Will Germany win on 2026-10-04? | $114K | 12 | Won: No | |
| Portugal vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 | $58K | 4 | Won: Under | |
| Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Astralis (BO5) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs | $78K | 12 | Won: Astralis | |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04? | $463K | 19 | Won: Yes | |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $153K | 27 | Won: Vitality | |
| Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | $52K | 14 | Open | |
| Counter-Strike: G2 vs 1WIN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $116K | 16 | Won: 1WIN |