Mushy-Asymmetry
0xe7387473b067235436884d16799777cf279edf65
Mushy-Asymmetry: +$1.3K on 21 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 91% (95% range 71%–97%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$1.3K
return +2.2%
Settled bets
21
$56K staked
Won
90.5%
95% range 71%–97%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 14 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$6.7K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$6.1K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$1.8K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 85¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | $7.2K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 72¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? |
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | $2.5K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 99¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7? |
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7? | $4.9K |
| Oct 5 | SELL Yes
@ 18¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | $19K |
| Oct 1 | BUY No
@ 89¢
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? |
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? | $8.9K |
| Sep 27 | SELL Yes
@ 89¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | $2.0K |
| Sep 22 | BUY Yes
@ 84¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | $2.7K |
| Sep 22 | SELL No
@ 83¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? |
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | $2.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.