Self-Reliant-Distribution
0x9c987f84d18a4dd640909409b31212fbb805f4f4
Self-Reliant-Distribution: −$11K on 11 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 46% (95% range 21%–72%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$11K
return −15.7%
Settled bets
11
$67K staked
Won
45.5%
95% range 21%–72%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$2.1K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$8.4K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 | BUY No
@ 92¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | $4.5K |
| Sep 9 | BUY Yes
@ 94¢
LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch? |
LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch? | $2.0K |
| Sep 9 | BUY Yes
@ 48¢
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? |
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? | $2.4K |
| Sep 9 | BUY Yes
@ 41¢
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? |
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch? | $1.7K |
| Sep 5 | BUY No
@ 77¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? |
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | $8.0K |
| Sep 3 | BUY No
@ 16¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | $1.9K |
| Sep 3 | BUY No
@ 91¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? |
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | $8.2K |
| Sep 2 | BUY No
@ 96¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | $11K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.